The Ministry of Finance has reported the weekly economic figures as of April 23, 2021, as follows:
1. The value of exports in March 2021 grew by 8.5% compared to the same period last year, while the value of imports increased by 14.1% year-on-year.
2. The Industrial Confidence Index (TISI) for March 2021 rose to 87.3 from 85.1 in the previous month.
3. Domestic cement sales in March 2021 increased by 11.4% compared to the same period last year.
4. The number of foreign tourists entering Thailand in March 2021 was 6,737, including Special Tourist Visa (STV) holders, Thailand Privilege Card holders, and business travelers, reflecting a decline of 99.2% year-on-year.

The value of exports in March 2021 was $24.223 billion, representing an 8.5% increase compared to the same period last year, marking the highest growth in 28 months since November 2018. This growth was partly driven by record-high exports of automobiles, equipment and components, rubber gloves, and plastic pellets. Other contributing export items included air conditioners and components, chemicals, electrical circuit boards, machinery and components, steel, and iron products. However, gold exports saw a decline during the same month. In terms of export markets, most of Thailand's major trading partners, such as the United States, Japan, China, EU15, Australia, India, South Korea, and Taiwan, showed growth. Exports to the ASEAN-9 group continued to decline, but at a slower rate of -0.4% compared to the previous month, which saw a decline of -11.8%. The average export growth for the first quarter of 2021 was 2.3% year-on-year.

The value of imports in March 2021 was $23.512 billion, reflecting a significant growth of 14.1% compared to the same period last year, driven by key import categories including capital goods (average growth of 16.8%), raw materials and semi-finished goods (average growth of 29.6%), and consumer goods (average growth of 21.9%). However, fuel imports saw an average decline of -9.5%. The average import growth for the first quarter of 2021 was 9.4% year-on-year. The trade balance for March 2021 remained slightly in surplus at $710.8 million, resulting in a cumulative trade surplus of $515.7 million for Thailand in the first quarter of 2021.

The Industrial Confidence Index (TISI) for March 2021 increased to 87.3 from 85.1 in the previous month. This rise in the index was attributed to the manufacturing sector's recovery in response to increased domestic and international demand, supported by the government's relaxation of COVID-19 control measures, which boosted economic activities in the country. Additionally, export orders increased in line with the global economic recovery, particularly in the automotive and component sectors, electrical appliances, computers and components, chemicals, and refined oil.

The volume of domestic cement sales in March 2021 grew by 11.4% compared to the same period last year and increased by 1.5% compared to the previous month after seasonal adjustments. Cement sales have now increased for four consecutive months as the COVID-19 outbreak situation improved (not including the impact of the new outbreak, which appears to be more widespread and severe than previous ones) and the progress in COVID-19 vaccination in the country has boosted public confidence, including that of businesses, regarding the domestic economic situation. Furthermore, the acceleration of government construction projects has also contributed to the increased demand for cement. However, the impact of the new COVID-19 outbreak may pose a downside risk to the recovering construction and real estate sectors, which need to be closely monitored.

The number of foreign tourists entering Thailand in March 2021 was 6,737, including Special Tourist Visa (STV) holders, Thailand Privilege Card holders, and business travelers, an increase from February 2021, which had 5,741 tourists. However, the total number of tourists in March 2021 still reflected a decline of 99.2% year-on-year, with the majority coming from the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and China. In the first quarter of 2021, the total number of foreign tourists entering Thailand was 20,127, down 99.7% year-on-year.



Global Economic Indicators
US????
Existing home sales in March 2021 declined by 3.7% from the previous month (seasonally adjusted), a slower decline compared to February 2021, which was at -6.6% (seasonally adjusted). Home sales in March 2021 decreased across all regions and reached the lowest level since August 2020, attributed to rising home prices, low housing inventory, and increasing construction material costs. The number of initial jobless claims for the week of April 11-17, 2021, decreased to 547,000, down from 586,000 the previous week, marking the lowest level since March 2020. The US labor market is continuously recovering as the economy reopens and is supported by the $1.9 trillion economic stimulus package and the accelerated distribution of COVID-19 vaccinations.

Japan????
Industrial production in February 2021 decreased by 2.0% compared to the same period last year. However, the value of imports in March 2021 increased by 5.7% year-on-year, marking the highest increase in 14 months. Similarly, the value of exports in March 2021 rose by 16.1% year-on-year due to the global trade recovery, resulting in a trade surplus of 663.7 billion yen in March 2021, up from 7.5 billion yen in the same month last year, the largest surplus since December 2020. The inflation rate in March 2021 decreased by 0.2% year-on-year due to lower transportation and communication costs, fuel prices, healthcare, education, and food prices. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April 2021 slightly increased to 53.3, reflecting higher production and new orders, indicating improved confidence in the manufacturing sector, while the services PMI for April 2021 remained stable at 48.3, marking the 15th month of contraction.

Eurozone????
The European Central Bank decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 0.0% during its April 2021 meeting. The ECB indicated that economic activity in the Eurozone is expected to recover in 2021, although short-term economic prospects remain uncertain. The preliminary consumer confidence index for April 2021 was at -8.1, an improvement from -10.8 in March 2021, as economic activities began to recover gradually alongside the accelerated vaccination efforts in the Eurozone.

Singapore????
The inflation rate in March 2021 was 1.3% year-on-year, up from 0.7% in the previous month, primarily driven by transportation costs.

UK????
The unemployment rate in February 2021 slightly decreased to 4.9% from 5.0% in January 2021, supported by government interest rate reduction programs. Meanwhile, the inflation rate in March 2021 rose to 0.7% year-on-year due to increasing fuel prices.

The SET index increased from the previous week, in line with other regional stock markets such as HSI (Hong Kong), TWSE (Taiwan), and STI (Singapore). The SET index initially declined at the beginning of the week but gradually increased from mid-week, closing at 1,568.21 points on April 22, 2021, with an average daily trading value of 93.33 billion baht from April 19-22, 2021. Domestic retail investors, institutional investors, and securities accounts were net buyers, while foreign investors were net sellers, with foreign sales totaling 479.54 million baht from April 19-22, 2021.



The overall yield on government bonds decreased by 0 to -10 bps. During this week, investors participated in the auction of 15-year and 4-year government bonds, with demand at 3.47 and 1.65 times the auction amount, respectively. From April 19-22, 2021, foreign capital inflows into the bond market totaled 12.8 billion baht, and since the beginning of the year until April 22, 2021, foreign capital inflows into the bond market totaled 18.93 billion baht.


The Thai baht appreciated against the previous week, closing at 31.32 baht per US dollar on April 22, 2021, an appreciation of 0.71% from the previous week, in line with other currencies such as the yen, euro, ringgit, won, Singapore dollar, and yuan, which also appreciated against the US dollar. However, the baht's appreciation was less than that of other regional currencies, resulting in a 0.37% depreciation of the Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) from the previous week.



Thai Economic Data




Economic Data from Thailand's 15 Trading Partners




Data source: Macro Economic Policy Bureau, Fiscal Policy Office / Economic Policy Strategy Office, Ministry of Finance